Celtics jockey for playoff position against Wizards

Basketball Betting Lines

04/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Celtics are fighting for the third spot in the Eastern Conference and will try to continue their recent dominance of the Washington Wizards tonight from TD Garden.

Boston, which is tied with Atlanta for the third seed in the conference, has won the first three meetings with the Wizards this season after sweeping the 2008-09 season series in three games. The Celtics have won six in a row against Washington, which has lost three straight in Beantown.

The Celtics are coming off Wednesday's 115-104 road victory over the Toronto Raptors, as Rajon Rondo provided 21 points, seven assists and five rebounds to lead the way. Paul Pierce added 20 points, Kevin Garnett netted 19 and Ray Allen chipped in 18 points for Boston, which won for just the second time in six tries. Michael Finley had 14 points off the bench.

"Watching the game in the fourth I was sitting on the bench and he came in the game and gave us a real spark," Pierce said of Finley. "The bench was huge for us tonight when the game was in a battle with a six-point lead. They stretched the lead out, Michael Finley hit some big threes and that was big for us, especially on a back-to-back."

The Celtics are 24-15 at home this season.

Washington will try to bounce back from a 121-94 blowout loss to the Orlando Magic on Wednesday from Amway Arena. Nick Young had 21 points and Mike Miller tallied 16 points and nine rebounds for the Wizards, who entered the game with three wins in four tries.

Andray Blatche contributed 13 points and is averaging 21.7 points, 8.1 rebounds and 3.4 assists in 28 games since the All-Star break. Miller is posting 16.2 points, 8.7 rebounds and 4.8 assists in his last six contests.

"They have a great bench. They have been doing it all year," Miller said of the Magic. "They bring a lot of energy. Mickael Pietrus is great, J-Will runs the show unbelievably, J.J. Redick makes shots. Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson and (Marcin) Gortat make up a great bench. That is one thing you try and slow down when you play these guys."

The Wizards will try to work on their 10-29 mark as the guest.

Blatche is averaging 16.3 points and 5.3 rebounds in three games versus Boston this season.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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