Unpredictable tournament sets up USA-Cuba in quarters

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - Thunder Bay, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After six exciting days and 30 hard- fought games of round-robin competition, the 2010 International Baseball Federation World Junior Baseball Championship is set to begin the medal round. Anything but predictable, the round-robin portion of the tournament had a touch of everything, from pitching gems to nail-biting, walk-off wins. Fans in Thunder Bay have been treated all week to a world class display of the best young talent the game has to offer.

Even before the first pitch was thrown, the drama had begun. Less than 24 hours before the start of the championship, the IBAF announced that Team Venezuela had dropped out of the tournament amid speculation of visa troubles, only to be reinstated the following day, enabling them to play in their second scheduled game. While Venezuela stumbled to a 1-4 record in round-robin play, their eventual participation in the tournament can be viewed as a minor victory.

Perhaps the most shocking storyline to emerge out of the preliminary round was powerhouse Cuba's 3-2 record and fourth-place finish in Pool B. Cuba enjoyed a blazing-hot start to the tournament capturing wins in each of their first three contests while outscoring their opponents 29-1, but following a 6-5 loss to the defending champions from South Korea in their fourth game, Team Cuba was beaten in extra innings by tournament underdogs the Netherlands. As a result, a potential gold-medal-game scenario will now take place in just the quarterfinals, as Cuba will take on undefeated Team USA.

"You never know what is going to happen in a tournament," said Team USA assistant manager Tom Succow. "I think all different types of things occur when you have a round-robin with as many games as we've played in the past week. The fact that we have drawn Cuba and Cuba has drawn us, it's not shocking,"

Equally unpredictable was Wednesday night's surprise thriller between Team Canada and the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic came into the game winless and hungry to upset the host nation in front of a patriotic sold out Port Arthur Stadium, and almost delivered another shocking tournament upset. After being up 6-2 through seven innings, Canada chipped away until Dalton Pompey hit a walk-off, opposite-field blast into the corner in the bottom of the ninth that gave Canada a quarterfinal berth versus Italy. Had Canada lost to the Czechs they would have had a much more daunting task in the round of eight, facing a talented Chinese Taipei team whose only loss came to gold-medal favorites Team USA.

Canada's path to the gold medal game could not have been scripted any better for the host nation. Should Canada beat Italy on Friday, they would face the winner of Team Netherlands and Chinese Taipei in the first semi-final matchup Saturday afternoon. Arguably the three toughest matchups in the entire tournament for Canada have fallen to the opposite side of the medal round bracket. In the process, Cuba, USA and South Korea are likely to beat up on each other vying for the remaining spot in the gold medal final. This all bodes well for a Canadian team looking to build off the momentum of a walk-off win but if we've learned anything from this past week, it's that nothing is certain. With the tournament shifting to single-game knock out, there's an even smaller margin for error, and an upset at this stage of the game doesn't permit for second chances.

Even though the round-robin hasn't shaken down exactly as experts had projected, contending teams are echoing the pragmatic words of Succow.

"You've got to play the best teams to win the gold medal...our mind set is to win the gold medal."

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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