No spending spree yet in free agency

Football Betting Lines

03/05/2010 -

NEW YORK (AP) -With the salary cap gone the way of the drop kick, NFL teams began the free agency period Friday with lots of moves.

The only thing missing was the megadeal, although the Chicago Bears appeared to be closing in on one with defensive end Julius Peppers.

Otherwise, it was business as usual on a busy day generally lacking in drama, but involving several key players.

Linebacker Gary Brackett, the leader of the Indianapolis defense, re-signed with the Colts. All-Pro fullback Leonard Weaver re-signed with Philadelphia for three years.

Cornerback Antonio Cromartie, a former All-Pro who struggled in coverage last season, was traded to the New York Jets by San Diego.

Detroit, coming off two wins in the last two seasons, upgraded its defense by trading with Cleveland for tackle Corey Williams and agreeing to a four-year deal with end Kyle Vanden Bosch.

Carolina waived longtime starting quarterback Jake Delhomme - in teary fashion.

A year after the Panthers gave Delhomme a lucrative contract extension, the only quarterback to lead them to the Super Bowl was released to make way for new starter Matt Moore. A career-high 18 interceptions in 2009 and 23 in his final 12 games did in Delhomme.

``Six of my seven years playing here have been outstanding. It's been a great run,'' Delhomme said in between sniffles. ``I'm leaving with no animosity whatsoever.''

Nor do the Panthers have any bitterness.

``It's really hard to describe how hard this was,'' a red-faced general manager Marty Hurney said. ``It's hard not to get emotional when you talk about it because he epitomizes everything we want. He's been an excellent player for us.''

Coach John Fox twice welled up with tears in explaining the decision, which came despite the fact Carolina still owes Delhomme more than $12.5 million in guaranteed money.

``He's done some great things for this team. Two (NFC) championship games, a Super Bowl, all those comeback victories,'' Fox said. ``I'm not sure I've had any more respect for an NFL football player than Jake Delhomme.''

Brackett wasn't going anywhere, nor did he want to. The defensive captain signed a five-year deal hours after he officially became an unrestricted free agent. Brackett's new deal is likely to keep the 29-year-old in a Colts uniform the rest of his career.

``Obviously, this is a great place to play and when you get a chance to stay a Colt for life, you usually jump at it,'' Brackett said. ``That's why I wanted to do everything within my power to make this my home.''

Weaver certainly found a home in Philadelphia after playing four years for Seattle. Weaver had a career-high 323 yards rushing, 140 yards receiving and four touchdowns in his first season with the Eagles.

Vanden Bosch was made to feel right at home by Lions coach Jim Schwartz, who previously worked with the defensive end in Tennessee as the Titans' coordinator. Schwartz waited outside Vanden Bosch's Nashville home when free agency began at midnight, and in a few hours they had struck a deal.

A nine-year veteran, Vanden Bosch spent the past five seasons with the Titans, getting all of his 43 1/2 career sacks.

Cromartie should become a starter opposite All-Pro Darelle Revis in the Jets' secondary. New York gave up a conditional draft pick for a former All-Pro who has had off-field issues.

But Jets coach Rex Ryan is known for getting production from such players.

Also Friday:

-Atlanta said it will keep backup quarterback Chris Redman with a contract extension. Redman joined the Falcons in 2007 and went 0-2 as a starter last year filling in for 2008 Offensive Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan. Redman is 4-8 in his career.

-Denver agreed to terms with two veterans, offensive lineman Russ Hochstein and wide receiver Brandon Lloyd. Hochstein played in 15 games, starting 10, in his first season with the Broncos after being acquired from New England in a trade last August.

Lloyd played in two games for Denver in 2009, including a start in the regular season finale.

-Washington, a team expected to make a big splash in the uncapped free agency waters, did little. The Redskins re-signed defensive lineman Phillip Daniels, versatile backup DL Lorenzo Alexander, who could be moved to linebacker, and offensive lineman Mike Williams.

-Carolina, in addition to releasing Delhomme, also released defensive tackles Damione Lewis and Maake Kemoeatu and linebackers Na'il Diggs and Landon Johnson in the start of a youth movement.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.

Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.