Colts, Broncos, Try to Maintain Division Leads

Football Betting Lines

09/28/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A battle of first-place teams will be the feature attraction at the RCA Dome on Sunday afternoon, as the Indianapolis Colts welcome the Denver Broncos to town in a matchup between two frequent members of the AFC elite.

The Colts have looked every bit the part of reigning Super Bowl champ thus far in 2007, taking the best shot of the Saints (41-10), Titans (22-20) and Texans (30-24) to continue their September dominance.

Indianapolis brings an eight-game win streak, which includes last year's Super Bowl victory over Chicago, into Sunday's matchup, and can move to a lusty 17-2 in September under head coach Tony Dungy with a win over Denver. The Colts are one of five remaining unbeaten teams as Week 5 begins, joining the Cowboys, Packers, Patriots, and Steelers in that department, but own just a one game lead in the AFC South over 2-1 hopefuls Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee.

The Broncos have not looked nearly as crisp as the Colts through three weeks, and come off a discouraging 23-14 home loss to the Jaguars, but thanks to the general struggles of the Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders, all 1-2, Denver can boast the same one-game advantage in its division, the AFC West.

Prior to its loss to Jacksonville, Denver scored narrow victories over Buffalo (15-14) and Oakland (23-20 in overtime) to start the season.

Clutch kicks by veteran field goal man Jason Elam lifted Mike Shanahan's squad to both dramatic triumphs.

SERIES HISTORY

Denver holds an 11-5 edge in the all-time regular season series with Indianapolis, but was a 34-31 home loser when the teams met in Week 8 of last season. The Broncos won the previous meeting, a 33-14 triumph at home in Week 17 of the 2004 campaign, when Indy rested most of its starters. Denver last won in Indianapolis during the 2003 regular season, a 31-17 victory.

The Colts have won the only two postseason meetings between the teams, routing Denver at the RCA Dome in AFC First-Round Playoff matchups in 2003 (41-10) and 2004 (49-24).

Dungy is 5-3 in his career against the Broncos, including the two playoff wins. Denver's Shanahan is 2-5 all-time against Indianapolis, including the postseason losses, and is 3-5 in his career against Dungy.

WHEN THE BRONCOS HAVE THE BALL

Making his return to the state of Indiana is Denver quarterback Jay Cutler (795 passing yards, 3 TD, 4 INT), a native of Santa Claus, IN, a town roughly 180 miles southwest of Indianapolis. Cutler enters Sunday's contest looking to an extend a personal streak of at least one touchdown pass in each of his first eight NFL starts, and will try to lead the Broncos attack to better than the mere 11 first downs the team managed against Jacksonville last Sunday. Cutler comes into Sunday's game with a decent 84.3 passer rating, and has thrown often to top receivers Brandon Marshall (17 receptions, 1 TD), Javon Walker (19 receptions), and Brandon Stokley (9 receptions, 1 TD). Stokley played with the Colts from 2003 through 2006, catching 139 passes for 1,916 yards with 15 touchdowns. The Broncos will also try to establish running back Travis Henry (302 rushing yards, 1 TD) who was held to just 35 yards on 11 carries last Sunday but did score his first touchdown in a Denver uniform. Henry totaled 216 yards on 39 attempts in two meetings with Indianapolis last season, both recorded as a member of the Tennessee Titans.

Though they've given up a few big plays over the past two games, the Indianapolis defense has looked as good this season as it has in recent memory. The consistent presence of safety Bob Sanders (24 tackles, 2.5 sacks), an early candidate for NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors, has had much to do with that performance, as Sanders has turned a formerly soft run- stopping unit into an occasionally stifling one. Sanders had four tackles against Houston last Sunday. Elsewhere in the secondary, cornerback Marlin Jackson (33 tackles) turned in an eye-opening 15-tackle performance. Along with Sanders, the Indianapolis front seven has done a good job of limiting the run, with linebacker Gary Brackett (24 tackles, 1 INT) and rookie tackle Ed Johnson (9 tackles) both part of that trend. Brackett had nine tackles and his first interception of the year in last week's win, while Johnson had four stops. Indy has seven sacks on the year, including two by Robert Mathis (8 tackles), but fellow end Dwight Freeney (5 tackles) has yet to get to the quarterback in 2007.

WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL

Arguably, no team has helped Manning (873 passing yards, 5 TD, 1 INT) carve out his legend as one of the all-time greats as much as the Broncos have. The future Hall-of-Fame quarterback has put up huge numbers and engineered wins against Denver teams that entered meetings with Indianapolis boasting a strong reputation. In his last two meetings with the Broncos, Manning has combined for 59-of-72 passing (82 percent) for 802 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception in two Indianapolis wins. Manning is off to a Manning-like start (104.9 passer rating), and top targets Marvin Harrison (16 receptions, 1 TD), Reggie Wayne (16 receptions, 2 TD), and tight end Dallas Clark (13 receptions, 2 TD) have again been there to help form perhaps the most lethal passing attack in the league. Wayne had a game-high 84 yards against Houston last week, while Clark caught Manning's only TD of the day. Running back Joseph Addai (271 rushing yards, 4 TD), who rushed for 72 yards and scored two touchdowns against the Texans, continues to impress.

Though he has sliced them up many times before, Manning actually faces a daunting task in facing the 2007 version of the Denver secondary. The Broncos are allowing a league-low 88.3 passing yards per game as Week 4 begins, and with cornerbacks Champ Bailey (19 tackles, 1 INT) and Dre' Bly (9 tackles, 1 INT) along with safety John Lynch (10 tackles, 1 sack) all patrolling the defensive backfield, Harrison and Wayne don't figure to have it easy. On the other hand, Addai has to be licking his chops when viewing a defense that surrendered 186 rushing yards in last week's loss to Jacksonville. Linebackers D.J. Williams (25 tackles, 1 sack) and Nate Webster (19 tackles) have not stood out with their play thus far in 2007, and the club is not getting good push from Sam Adams (5 tackles) and Amon Gordon (11 tackles) at the point of attack. The Broncos rank among league leaders with nine sacks, including a team-best four from end Elvis Dumervil (8 tackles, 1 INT), but that doesn't figure to mean a heck of a lot against the virtually unsackable Manning.

FANTASY FOCUS

Manning, Addai, Wayne, Harrison, and Indianapolis kicker Adam Vinatieri are all must-starts every week for fantasy managers. The Colts defense is also a solid start due to its playmaking ability, a thought that would have seemed bizarre at the end of the 2006 regular season. For Denver, Cutler is a bit hit-or-miss because of his poor TD-to-INT ratio, but his top receiver Marshall and running back Henry have not disappointed fantasy mavens thus far. Elam has also been great. If you've been playing the Denver defense, probably a good week to check the waiver wire for a substitute.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

After seeing average-to-poor secondaries the first three weeks of the season, Manning should have his hands full this week. You should still give the edge to Harrison and Wayne against Bailey and Bly, but the presence of those corners could make the heady quarterback have to think for a fraction of a second more than he would against a Houston, Tennessee, or New Orleans. If all goes well for Indy, it will be Addai that carries the day, though the Broncos' run-stopping group has much to prove following its struggles against Jacksonville and figures to play better. On the other side, Denver has the most talent of any offense Indianapolis has played thus far, and with Shanahan calling the plays, you can expect Cutler, Henry, and company to try to exploit the soft spots. In January, you would have to give the edge in this tilt to Indianapolis, and the Colts have the advantage in September as well. The Broncos should be game and aren't likely to get picked apart for 60 minutes, but ultimately, they'll still fall.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Colts 30, Broncos 27