Bolton equalizes late to tie Bayern

Soccer Betting Lines

11/08/2007 - Munich, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Davies scored in the 82nd minute as Bolton earned a surprising 2-2 draw with Bayern Munich in Group F of the UEFA Cup on Thursday.

Ricardo Gardner gave Bolton the lead in the eighth minute, but Lukas Podolski scored two goals as Bayern Munich rallied for the second game in a row in the UEFA Cup.

Bayern needed an 86th minute goal from Miroslav Klose and a stoppage-time goal from Toni Kroos to win its first game in Group F, 3-2 over Red Star Belgrade.

The Bundesliga leaders couldn't hold off Bolton, though, surrendering the late equalizer to disappoint 66,000 fans at the Fubball Arena Munchen.

Gardner took advantage of poor defending for the early goal when Bayern failed to clear a throw-in. Gardner took a pass from Daniel Braaten and scored off a deflection.

Podolski, who took a reserve role this season with Bayern Munich following the signings of Luca Toni and Klose, scored his first goal in the 30th.

Midfielders Franck Ribery and Bastian Schweinsteiger helped set up the score, which Podolski easily slipped past Bolton goalie Ali Al Habsi.

Podolski, who started in place of Toni, added his second goal after halftime off an assist from Ribery.

Bayern was in control after taking the lead, but after Podolski (57th), Ribery (60) and Schweinsteiger (73) were taken out, Bolton was able to find the tying goal.

Kevin Nolan, who scored a late equalizer against West Ham in the Premiership on Sunday, set up Davies' goal with a nice pass in the box. Davies struck the ball low past Bayern goalie Oliver Kahn.

Bayern visits Braga when UEFA Cup play continues on Nov. 29. Bolton (0-0-2) hosts Aris Thessaloniki on Nov. 29.

Also in Group F, Thanassis Papazoglou scored two of Aris Thessaloniki's three goals in the final 14 minutes of a 3-0 win over Red Star Belgrade.

In Group A, Mikel Arteta and Victor Anichebe scored in the final 10 minutes as Everton beat Nurnberg 2-0, and Konstatin Zurianov and Fatih Tekke scored in the final 20 minutes as Zenit St. Petersburg rallied for a 3-2 victory over Larissa.

In Group B, Dame Ndoye scored in the 15th minute and Panathinaikos held on for a 1-0 win over FC Copenhagen after Hjalte Bo Norregaard missed a penalty kick in the 64th minute, and Lokomotiv Moscow's Branislav Ivanovic scored in the 45th minute to equalize Alexander Diamond's goal in the 27th for Aberdeen in a 1-1 draw.

In Group C, Kahveci Nihat and Gonzalez Santi Cazorla scored as Villarreal defeated Mlada Boleslav 2-1, and Martin Jorgensen had two goals as Fiorentina rolled to a 6-1 win over Elfsborg.

In Group D, Basle held onto the top spot with a 0-0 draw at Dinamo Zagreb, and Bruno Cheyrou scored on a penalty kick in the 88th minute as Rennes tied Brann, 1-1.

In Group E, Roman Pavluchenko and Santos Batista Mozart scored on penalty kicks and Spartak Moscow held on for a 2-1 win over Bayer Leverkusen, and Karol Kisel scored the second of his two goals in the 88th minute to lift Sparta Prague to a 3-2 win over Toulouse.

In Group G, Robbie Keane and Dimitar Berbatov scored in the first half and Tottenham had no trouble holding on for a 2-0 win after Hapoel Tel Aviv had a man sent off early in the second half, and Mattias Lindstrom scored in the 86th minute as AaB tied Anderlecht, 1-1.

In Group H, Henrik Larsson, Razak Omotoyossi and Christoffer Andersson scored as Helsinborg overcame two goals by Galatasaray's Shabani Nonda for a 3-2 win, and Silva Wendell converted a penalty in the 88th as Bordeaux rallied for a 2-1 win over Austria Vienna.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.